نمذجة دالة الاستهلاك في ليبيا باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الكمي للفترة 1990-2020

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the consumption function in the Libyan economy during the period 1990-2020 by employing the Quantile regression model, in order to analyze the impact of income, exchange rate, and population size on household consumption expenditure. The results indicate that income has a significant positive effect, particularly among the low and middle consumption groups, while the exchange rate exerts a stronger influence at higher consumption levels, reflecting its volatility in the economy. Moreover, population size emerges as the most stable determinant, emphasizing the crucial role of demographic factors. The findings further demonstrate that Quantile regression captures the heterogeneous effects of explanatory variables across different quantiles of consumption, a feature that conventional estimation methods such as OLS fail to reveal. This underscores the importance of applying Quantile regression in the analysis of economic relationships.