State-Building in Libya Between Internal Challenges and External Interventions(A Study of the Paths of Chaos and Stability)

Abstract

This study addresses the issue of state-building in Libya after 2011, based on the premise that the stumbling blocks to political transition in Libya are not solely attributable to the failure of the political elite, but are fundamentally linked to a structural failure to reestablish the pillars of the modern state. The study shows that the transition phase began in the absence of a stable constitutional framework, with armed actors continuing to operate outside the authority of the state and the security and military apparatus in disarray, leading to the militarization of the political sphere and the transformation of political competition into a struggle for control of the state itself. The oil rentier economy also contributed to deepening the conflict over resources rather than supporting the building of effective public institutions, while the duality of sovereign and administrative institutions weakened governance and eroded citizens' trust in the state. In theoretical literature, the Libyan situation is classified as a fragile or failed state, given the state's loss of its monopoly on the use of force, the division of political power, and the internationalization of internal conflict, which has made stability dependent on power balances rather than the rule of law. The study shows that, despite their importance in temporarily reducing the level of violence, political dialogue processes have failed to achieve sustainable stability due to the absence of simultaneous reform of the security and institutional sectors, rendering political agreements fragile and prone to collapse. The study concludes that the path to state-building in Libya is linked to the integration of four basic requirements: security through the unification of military institutions and the disarmament of armed groups; legitimacy through constitutional consensus and an inclusive social contract; the economy through fair and transparent management of oil resources; and institutions through comprehensive administrative and judicial reform. In light of this, the study outlines three scenarios for the future of the Libyan state: The first is continued conflict and fragmentation if political division and foreign interference remain unchecked. The second is the possibility of a transition to stability and state-building if a national consensus is achieved, supported by genuine security and institutional reform and control of foreign interference.